Great Power Politics

I. The End of French Primacy: 1871-1875

A. Germany in Dominant Position


From 1871 to 1914 Germany holds a dominant position in European politics. This is the result of her defeat of France and the unification of all the German states except Austria. Germany now holds a strong central position in Europe physically. She has a victorious army based on universal service obligations. Thanks to Bismarck's diplomacy, she is a "satiated" power, i.e. she is satisfied with things as they are.

But dangers of all kinds surround her. Europe is naturally suspicious, looking for opportunities to weaken her position. So Bismarck decides to bind the other powers to Germany in order to maintain the status quo.

Otto von Bismarck has been rightfully considered to be one of the great statesmen of the 19th century. His skill as a diplomat consisted largely of understanding the legitimate interests and weaknesses of others. He was resourceful in difficult moments, as in 1887. He always had several alternatives available to meet any situation. He had complete control over German policy, granted to him as the chancellor by the emperor. He knew how to manipulate and control the politicians in the Reichstag. He brought order to Europe like Metternich did after Napoleon's defeat a generation before. Fundamentally Bismarck's policy after 1871 is a policy of peace. Practically speaking his guiding principle is to prevent France from getting an ally-either Russia or Austria.

B. Three Emperors League.


Bismarck's first move in this direction was the Three Emperors League. In 1872 an informal agreement was signed by the emperors of Germany, Russia and Austria in Berlin. It stipulated that all three wanted to preserve the status quo and suppress revolutionary ideas wherever they popped up. This was an old notion, which Metternich had also tried to implement. It was after all a revolutionary age-ever since 1789.

C. Military Conventions-1873


In 1873 teeth were put into the agreement. The Germans and Russians signed a military convention which said that both powers would mobilize 200,000 troops if either of them was attacked by a third power. The Austrians and the Russians also signed an agreement which provided for mutual consultation, the renunciation of new alliances, and the common conduct of policy should aggression by a third power occur. The king of Italy later adhered to this Austro-Russian agreement.

Britain, meanwhile, had no active policy. This had the effect of totally isolating France, as Bismarck intended. French primacy in European affairs was over for good, or so it seemed to contemporary observers.

II. The War Scare of 1875: "War in Sight"


In order to reduce the influence of the Catholic Church in Germany and create what Bismarck thought to be a truly national consensus, he conducted the so-called Kulturkampf. This restricted the freedom of the Catholic press and their educational system. The French bishops sympathized with the plight of the Catholic clergy in Germany. So Bismarck decided to impress on France her sense of isolation.

In the spring of 1875 the French Chamber had passed a new army law which added a fourth battalion to each regiment. Bismarck now said this indicated an impending attack of France on Germany. The Berlin Post published an article inspired by Bismarck which ran a screaming headline: "Is War in Sight?"

The German Imperial General Staff began to urge a preventive war against France. The chief of the General Staff, Helmut von Moltke, used threatening language in a discussion with the Belgian minister in Berlin. The Foreign Minister of France used this comment to score Bismarck and appeal to the tsar of Russia for help. The tsar and his minister, Gorchakov, then visited Berlin to talk things out. Queen Victoria of England decided to send a conciliatory letter to the German Emperor, who was a relative of hers. The crisis, artificially created by Bismarck, thus ends, but the consequences were important.

For his part, Bismarck denied that he ever contemplated war and blamed the crisis on the everpresent intrigues of Gorchakov. But Bismarck also learned that even isolated France is not without some friends. The French continued to believe that Bismarck meant to start a war. There is some evidence to suggest that Decazés had a hand in creating the incident. In any case, Bismarck believed that Gorchakov had disturbed the Three Emperors League and began to turn to Britain for a new alliance. He made these overtures to Britain in 1876 and again in 1879. He also was eager to prevent any alliance between Austria and France. France must be kept in isolation.

III. The Balkan Crisis: 1875-1878


The Balkans are always a problem in this period, right up to the outbreak of World War I. The underlying issues is the fact that the Austrian Empire included a host of different nationalities and peoples, yearning to be free. In July 1875 there was a revolt in one of these small areas controlled by Austria: Bosnia-Herzegovina. In the spring of 1876 Serbia and Montenegro declared war on Austria-Hungary and were decisively defeated. The Bulgarians rise and are savagely repressed.

In Russia, which regarded itself as some sort of protector of her fellow Slavs, there was a public outcry for intervention in the Balkans. Any action by Russia, of course, was feared by Austria, since it would have encouraged rebellion by Austria's Slavic subjects throughout the empire.

A. End of Three Emperors League


In June of 1876 the Austrian emperor, Francis Joseph, and the Russian emperor, Alexander II, got together at Reichstadt and signed an agreement. This brings about some sort of quasi-cooperation. The effect is that it killed the Three Emperors League.. The advocates of a Pan-Slav movement, meanwhile, carried on an active anti-Austrian propaganda in the Balkans.

The Russian tsar in the fall of 1876 asked Bismarck if Germany would remain neutral should Russia go to war with Austria. This put Bismarck in a quandary. If he went with Russia, Austria-Hungary would have been destroyed. If he went with Austria-Hungary, it would have thrown Russia into the lap of France. He decided to back Austria in a vague way and stayed there. Russia then chose to fight Turkey instead.

B. Convention of Budapest


Meanwhile, the Russian and Austrian cabinets signed a Convention of Budapest in January 1877. This agrement stipulated the benevolent neutrality of Austria with regard to Russian activity with regard to Turkey. It also said Austria would prevent intervention by any other power and provide mediation if necessary. Austria meanwhile got the right to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina, while Russia agreed not to create a large state, Slavic or otherwise.

When Russia and Turkey went to war in April 1877, Bismarck said he would play the role of "an honest broker" between the rivals. Bismarck realized that Russia had legitimate interest int he Near East and banked on the traditional friendship between Russia and Germany. As far as Bismarck was concerned, the Ottoman Turks were not worth saving.

Bismarck pushed for all the major powers to get something out of the crisis. Russia should have some interest and control in the eastern Balkans, while Austria should have the same in the western Balkans. The English should control Egypt and the Suez Canal and negotiate some deal over the straits with Constantinople. The French could have Syria as far as Bismarck was concerned. Italy should get something, but he was not sure what. Germany, meanwhile, wanted to prevent any diplomatic combination and prevent any war from endangering her. He figured if Austria and Russia did not quarrel with each other, neither of them would be tempted to seek an alliance with France.

C. The Treaty of San Stefano


The Russo-Turkish war ended with the Treaty of San Stefano, signed in March 1878. As a result, Rumania, Serbia, and Montenegro became independent countries. "Greater Bulgaria" was declared to be autonomous, which meant not quite independent. In Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms were to be instituted. Russia got some territory in Asia Minor and an indemnity paid by the Turks.

Austria immediately complained because the creation of the Greater Bulgaria, she claimed, violated the Budapest Agreement with Russia. Britain, meanwhile, decided to become active, objecting to the partition of Turkey, and sent a fleet to Constantinople to make the point. Austria-Hungary then joined Britain in demanding that the Treaty of Saint Stefano be submitted to a Congress of the Great Powers for resoluti

on. To prevent further war from breaking out, Bismarck put pressure on Russia and again sided with Austria against Russia.

D. The Congress of Berlin


All of this resulted in the famous Congress of Berlin where Bismarck could play the role of "honest broker." This famous Congress took place at the invitation of Bismarck during June and July of 1878. Because it was held in Berlin, it emphasized Germany's powerful position in Europe and Bismarck's dominant influence. The Congress

1. reduced the size of Bulgaria,
2. forced Russia to give up some territory in Asia Minor,
3. empowered Austria-Hungary to occupy Bosnia-Herzegovina,
4. gave Cyprus to Britain,
5. humiliated Russia,
6. rearranged Turkey's position in Europe, and
7. kept the peace at the price of Russian hostility.

IV. The Triple Alliance: 1879-1882


Russian resentment against Germany is deep and unrelenting. There are violent polemics on both sides. Russia even moves troops to the Russo-German frontier. The German representative on the commission which negotiated the application of the Berlin Treaty frequently votes against Russia. The tsar complains about this to the German emperor and demands that Germany change her attitude.

And a fundamental change in German policy does indeed take place: the Austro-German Alliance of 1879. Here is how it happened. Bismarck decided that because of Russian hostility Germany must align herself with Austria. Russia is even making overtures to France and Italy. But Emperor William I is reluctant. He is, after all, the uncle of the Russian tsar. The emperor insists that the alliance is not to be directed against Russia. Andrassy, the Hungarian minister does not want a general defensive alliance or one directed against France. So Bismarck gets mad and threatens to resign, while demanding that the emperor abdicate. He gets his way as you usually did when threatening resignation.

The Dual Alliance between Germany and Austria was signed in October 1879. If either one is attacked by Russia, they promise to use their "whole war strength" against Russia. If another power attacks either one of them the other promised to remain neutral. If that power is supported by Russia, then both fight.

This was a major turning point in European history. It was the first permanent peacetime alliance--the first in the system of alliances that now began to develop. It gave pause to Russia and thus kept the peace in Europe. It also strengthened the German part of Austria-Hungary vis-a-vis their various minorities. It restored the system which prevailed in Europe before the Austro-Prussian war of 1866: with two major German powers in Central Europe. The German emperor feared that it would bring together Russia and France and involve Germany in Austria's problems in the Balkans. But all of this only came to fruition after Bismarck is gone.

In 1881 the Dual Alliance became the Triple Alliance with the addition of Italy. The Italians resented the protectorate the French had acquired over Tunis in 1881. But the real motive for the Italian government may have been its desire to strengthen is position vis-a-vis the Vatican, which had close connections to autocratic monarchies. The attempt to guarantee the independence of Rome was rejected by Austria. Thus the new alliance was regarded as a defensive alliance. It provided for the following contingencies:

  1. if Italy was attacked by France, aid her with all forces;
  2. the same held true if Germany was attacked by France;
  3. if attacked by one or two non-signatory powers, all would fight;
  4. the alliance was to run for five years;
  5. it was not directed against England;
  6. there was to be no help by Italy against Russia for Austria since Austria had promised no help to Germany against France.


At this point things really got complicated. Only Bismarck could keep it all straight in his head. For this he has been called a genius and he did maintain peace in Europe during this term of office.

Bismarck claimed that the alliance with Austria was a warning, not a threat to Russia. But Russia feels isolated nonetheless, especially since she has various disputes with England in the Near East and in Asia. So the Russian approach Bismarck for some kind of deal. Bismarck is receptive and persuades Austria to go along. The Alliance of the Three Emperors was singed in June 1881. If a fourth power attacked one of them the others would remain neutral. This also applied to Turkey, but only if previous agreement had been reached. Thus Germany and Austria would not assist Britain against Russia and Russia would remain neutral if a Franco-German or Austro-Italian war ensued. Russia and Austria promised to work in harmony over the problems in the Balkans. The treaty was renewed in 1884 and ended in 1887.

There were furthermore two other alliances: an Austro-Serbian Alliance (1881-1895) which supported the dynasty in Serbia in return for Austrian rights to approve any political treaties Serbia might want to make. The Serbs also promised not to engage in intrigues against Austria. An Austrian-Rumanian Alliance was signed which lasted somewhat longer (1883-1913). Rumania was mad because it lost Bessarabia to Russia in 1878. Austria promised to aid Rumania if she was attacked and vice versa. Germany and Italy both adhered to this treaty in 1883 and 1888 respectively. Thus Austria-Hungary was in a strong position in the Balkans in case the Russian tsar forgot the Three Emperors Alliance of 1881.

Between 1884 and 1885 there were a number of colonial complications. Germany was fairly friendly with Britain up to this point. But when Germany started to move in the direction of acquiring new colonies, Britain opposed her--much to the surprise of Bismarck. Bismarck then decided to teach the British a lesson on how dangerous it was to thwart Germany. France, under the leadership of Jules Ferry, was in rivalry with Britain. So in 1884-5 Ferry cooperated with Germany in Africa and China. But the French had not forgotten the loss of Alsace-Lorraine and Jules Ferry was toppled from power because of his cooperation with Bismarck and the loss of Tonkin. Bismarck then turned back to Britain in the summer of 1885.

V. The Bulgarian Crisis: 1885-1888


In September 1885 there was a rebellion in Eastern Rumelia whose people proclaimed a union with Bulgaria. This was a violation of the Berlin Treaty of 1878. A polemical battle ensued between Alexander Battenberg, the German candidate for the throne of a greater Bulgaria, and Alexander III, the tsar of Russia, who opposed a German on the Bulgarian throne. Russia protested strongly against the union, whereas Austria-Hungary and Britain supported the union. Germany appeared almost indifferent to the whole affair.

But in 1886 the Alexandrine episode gathered new steam. Battenberg was kidnapped in August and forced to abdicate his throne by Russia. The Russian then broke off diplomatic relations. At this point it became a European crisis. Kalnoky, the Austro-Hungarian minister denounced Russian action, while Bismarck tells the Austrians that Germany will not help her if war breaks out. Meanwhile, in France General Boulanger attempts to seize the government and set up a military dictatorship hostile to Germany. This too worries Bismarck. Russia's actions in the Balkans are hampered to an extent by a noisy public campaign in Russia against the Three Emperors Alliance. There is also considerable sympathy in Russia for France. So in 1887 there is widespread fear in Europe that a war is about to break out.

This is a severe test of Bismarck ability as a diplomat. But he is up to the task. In February 1887 he arranges the First Mediterranean Agreement. This was an agreement among Britain, Italy and Austria to maintain the status quo in the Mediterranean, Adriatic, Aegean, and Black Seas. It was clearly a barrier to France and Russian expansion without incurring Russian hostility. Bismarck had preceded this agreement by having the German Reichstag pass a new army bill, which surely impressed France.

This situation changed the basic nature of the Triple Alliance, so Bismarck made the necessary adjustments. The old provision of 1882 were renewed, but a new German-Italian addendum supported Italian "aggression" in Africa. In Europe the alliance was now more directly posed against France. The Austro-Italian part of the alliance swore to maintain the status quo in the Balkans, but promised reciprocal compensation if changes in territory occurred. These new promises kept Italy in the alliance, but made things quite awkward for the German and Austrians in 1914.

The more important event was the conclusion of the socalled Reinsurance Treaty of June 1887. It became necessary for Bismarck to make this deal with Russia, since Austria and Russia had refused to renew the Three Emperors Alliance. Russia is desperately eager to keep in good relations with Germany, largely in order to brake Austrian expansion in the Balkans. So it was the Russians which proposed the treaty to Bismarck. It provided that either power would remain neutral if the other is attacked by a third power. It did not apply if one of them attacked France or Austria. Thus Russia would be neutral if France attacked Germany and Germany would be neutral if Austria or Britain attacked Russia. In this respect the Reinsurance Treaty was compatible with the Dual Alliance of 1879.

There were other important provisions in the treaty: Germany recognized Russian rights in Bulgaria and her right to take Constantinople anytime she wanted to do so. This was certainly counter to Austrian and British interest in the area, but a safe bet for Bismarck because the First Mediterranean Agreement would keep Russia from acting on it. This part of the treaty was not revealed until 1896 when it caused quite a raucous.

In December 1887 there was a Second Mediterranean Agreement. This was brought about by renewed problems in Bulgaria. Ferdinand of Saxe-Coburg was elected prince of Bulgaria. The trouble was that the new prince was an officer in the Austro-Hungarian army. Russia got excited and asked Bismarck for help, which he refused. At this point the German General staff suggested a preventive war to get Russia out of the Balkans once and for all. But Bismarck only stopped the granting of loans to Russia, which put a brake on Russia and eventually forced her to go to Paris for loans.

The Second Mediterranean Agreement merely stipulated that an understanding would be reached on measures to respect the integrity of the Ottoman Empire. To play it safe, however, Germany and Austria passed new army bills and Bismarck decided to publish the secret provisions of the 1879 Treaty text. This had the effect of halting any Russian action. Bismarck supposedly said: "We Germans fear God and no one else." Russia then washed her hands of Bulgaria and Boulanger faded from the scene in France rather dramatically by committing suicide on the grave of his mistress.

All danger of war was now over. It was a triumph of old-fashioned diplomacy as conducted by the agile old Otto von Bismarck. Bismarck had won and peace was maintained. As long as Bismarck was on the scene "his" alliance system seemed to work. The problem was that almost all of the provisions of these alliances were secret and only Bismarck understood them fully.

VI. The Franco-Russian Alliance: 1888-1894


Russo-German relations remained cool. The Russians are buying rifles in France which makes Bismarck jumpy. So he turns to England to seek an alliance. British Foreign Minister Salisbury is in favor of such an alliance, but the British Parliament is not. He has no choice, therefore, but to renew the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia. The tsar is willing but others are wary of doing so, both in Russia and Germany.

Things get really tough for Bismarck when the grand old Emperor William I dies in 1888, sparking an accession problem. The liberal-minded, pro-English emperor Frederick II becomes emperor for about a year. His wife is the daughter of Queen Victoria. He dies too. So the mercurial William II comes to the German throne. This means trouble for Bismarck since the strange new emperor wants to run his own show. Bismarck had nearly complete control over William I, but that is not working with William II. In June 1890 Bismarck is dismissed.

The first important effect is that the Reinsurance Treaty with Russia is not renewed. Holstein, an important figure behind the scenes in the Foreign Office, is oppose to the Treaty and persuades the emperor and Caprivi, the new chancellor, not to renew it. The Russian foreign minster, Giers, pleads for renewal and the tsar hesitates to make an alliance with France, but all this is of no avail. It is the beginning of the disintegration of Bismarck's alliance system.

In July 1890 the Germans exchange Heligoland for some territory in Africa. That is a good sign. But in 1891 things go bad. Early in the year the Empress Fredericka visits Paris, but the French are more interested to know what the Russian attitude will be if war comes. The Russians are evasive on this score, although diplomatically friendly. Then the Triple Alliance of Germany, Austria, and Italy is renewed in 1891, causing considerable diplomatic commotion. There is a long debate in the British Parliament, showing that Britain is well disposed to cooperate with the Triple Alliance, especially with Italy in regard to maintaining the status quo in the Mediterranean and in the Near East. A British fleet, in fact, visits Austria and Italy and the German Emperor visits London. This last act finally brings France and Russia together.

The Russians need loans to build up their army and the French are willing to give loans, provided the Russian show interest in an alliance. A French fleet visits the Russian naval base at Kronstadt in St. Petersburg and is well received. An exchange of notes takes place in August 1891 in which Russia and France agree to confer on all peace questions and reach an understanding on measures to take in case of aggression. This particular exchange is largely geared against Britain. But in 1892 there is an understanding between the General Staffs of the Russian and the French armies. The French generals want to concentrate on the German threat, and the Russian generals want to concentrate on Austria. A compromise is reached the military convention is signed. Now it is a question of ratification.

The Germans, meanwhile, pass a new army bill, expanding their arsenal. The Russians and British are involved in a controversy over the Pamir region of Afghanistan--believe it or not. The French and British engage in a controversy over Siam in the Far East. The British at this point appeal for support from the Germans. The think that French policy towards Germany is too pacific and they want help also against the incursions of Britain in the colonial realm.

These considerations lead to the ratification of the Franco-Russian Treaty in January 1894. The provisions are clear enough: If France is attacked by Germany or Italy assisted by Germany, Russia promises to fight Germany with 700,000 to 800,000 men. If Russia is attacked by Germany or Austria assisted by Germany, France will use 1,300,000 troops against Germany. The most significant provision, in terms of subsequent events, was the one which said that if any of the Triple Alliance powers mobilized, France and Russia would mobilize immediately. It is interesting to note that while the circumstances for the agreement lay outside of Europe, the provisions applied strictly to Europe.

Bismarck's fear had been realized. The Triple Alliance had been outflanked. By 1902-4 the French would reach an entente cordial with Britain and thus complete the socalled Triple Entente, opposing the Triple Alliance directly. The peace of Europe and the world tottered on the fulcrum of two competing alliance systems. From 1894 until 1914 it was merely a question of which particular little diplomatic incident would bring the whole complex structure crashing to the ground.

Appendix

1. Alliance System

ˇ         1870 - 1890: Bismarck in control

ˇ         1890 - 1907: balance against Germany

2. Testing the system

ˇ         Russo-Japanese War, 1904-5

ˇ         First Morocco Crisis, 1905-6

ˇ         Bosnian Annexation Crisis, 1908

ˇ         Second Morocco Crisis, 1911

ˇ         Haldane Mission, 1912

3. Tensions in the Balkans

ˇ         Hapsburg Empire in turmoil

ˇ         South Slav Problem

ˇ         First Balkan War, 1912-13

ˇ         Second Balkan War, 1913.